Geopolitics

The NATO summit scheduled to take place in Bucharest this week, rather than focusing on Canada's dilemma in the requirement of backup troops from other NATO countries in Afghanistan, appears to be set for a confrontation of an entirely different kind. Not surprisingly so, in a sense, given the kind of intimidation and belligerence emanating from Russia that Europe has faced in the last few years.

Hard to entirely place the blame on Russia, either. That country feels hard up against the wall. Pressured into a neurotic sense of being beleaguered; politically abandoned by former satellites, and held in low esteem post break-up of the U.S.S.R. by the international community of those countries to which she had formerly posed a threat. But a resurgent and angry Russia, feeling betrayed and threatened began to offer her own threats.

So it isn't surprising that the European Union, many of whose member countries depend hugely on Russia for their oil and gas, would seek to placate her. To that end, they have abandoned the invitation extended to two remaining former Russian satellites to join NATO. Led by Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel, and France's President Nicholas Sarkozy, Georgia and Ukraine have been effectively disinvited.

Unsurprisingly too, Georgia's president, Mikhail Saakashvili is anything but pleased at this turn of events, likening it to the meek submissiveness of the Munich Agreement where Europe agreed to Nazi German's annexation of the Sudetenland. "I think this is a very, very wrong argument. We've seen Europe united once like this in this last century and we saw where it led.

"Appeasement is seen (in Russia) as a signal that they should act even tougher, and they will be more aggressive and provocative", he claimed in an interview with The Financial Times. The former Warsaw Pact countries which have been absorbed into NATO fully support the inclusion of Ukraine and Georgia, while Russia chafes angrily at the prospect.

Moreover, the United States under George W. Bush has seemed to go out of its way time and again to enrage Russia. The proposed installation of anti-missile systems on Czech soil and in Poland - which Poland has now formally agreed to - did not endear itself to Russia.

Ten interceptors are to be built in Poland ostensibly to prevent Western countries attacked by rockets from Iran.

Russia, however, sees those anti-rocket systems aimed squarely at her, not Iran. The American explanation has not gone down particularly well with Russia. Additionally, the provocative inclusion of former satellites into a collective that once opposed the Warsaw pact represents another bitter pill for the Russians to swallow.Russia has been ostracized, has felt alienated, abandoned and insulted.

The quickest way to ensure you have an enemy is to make friends with his neighbours and leave him isolated, out of the loop. And that is exactly what the United States has been busy doing, making mischief under this current administration, pulling its European Union allies along for the ride. As though the U.S. delights in giving Russia heartburn.

For its part, Russia is responding positively to this new move by Ms. Merkel, et al. Expressing a willingness to be more open to the needs of the EU and even offering NATO the opportunity to overfly Russia en route to Afghanistan in return for Ukraine and Georgia being left out of NATO. It's sad for those two countries who surely deserve inclusion in NATO for political and economic reasons.

But regional hegemonic problems with Russia and her former satellites won't be solved by NATO's ongoing interference, however well intended. There's always hope that with a loosening of the political tight-rope, Russia may over time become more amenable to reasonable response rather than resorting to belligerence and irrational threats.

Perhaps a greater alliance could be developed, inclusive of Russia, Georgia and Ukraine. It's a small world becoming smaller all the time. It's past time, in view of the acknowledged success of the European Union, that continent-sharing countries become more amenable to treating each other with due respect and willing co-operation.