August 15, 2008

Deal's On!

Who said this has been a boring summer? Anything but. And who said all eyes would be turned exclusively on China for the Beijing Olympics? China now has no monopoly on the news, something she's no doubt gnashing her teeth in frustration over. On the other hand, China has been subjected to more than enough impudently rude criticisms during these Olympic games, so perhaps it's just as well that the world is turning its critical gaze elsewhere.

And impudently insane, resurgently warlike Russia is causing a world-wide epidemic of white hairs, nervous twitches and sagging facial lines of dread.

More than a little frightening, actually, considering the potential for upgrading the current crisis in post-invasion Georgia to something more approximating a world upheaval of some substantial dimensions. Russia has been goaded endlessly by the United States which doesn't seem to be able to exact some discipline upon its wish to inflict a few more humiliating blows to the country's pride and prestige in Europe.

It's a strange relationship, actually. On the one hand, diplomacy prevails when Russia is invited to take part as an ex-officio participant - albeit temporarily, and tenuously - in NATO exercises (now oops-withdrawn). And when it's being invited to become involved in the World Trade Organization, and has been effectively added as a member of the G8 group of influential world leaders.

And then taunted when its former allies and satellites are enticed into entry to NATO and the European Union, allying themselves inextricably for the future with Russia's former political antagonists. It's things like that that really smart, and humiliate Russia, whose inability to retain the loyalty of former allies is inexplicable to her. Their gross ingratitude to their former protector puzzles the Kremlin beyond torment.

Russia's response, as she began to draw on the windfall landed through her natural resources and the resulting build-up of her armaments, has been prickly and offensive. Claiming ownership of the Arctic seabed and along with it, the limitless natural resources lying there. Russian bomber-provocative overflights close to North America's airspace, enjoying the spectacle of the North American Air Defence Command scrambling to respond.

Flights past the U.S. base on Guam, and over the USS Nimitz battle group, as well as causing the British to send up Tornado fighter jets three times in its little spat with Britain over the London murder of a Russian ex-patriot critic of the regime. As well as an overflight over the North Sea where NATO defence ministers were meeting in the Netherlands, compelling another intercept in response.

Nothing, however, infuriates the Kremlin to the degree that the United States' determination to install a missile defence shield in Eastern Europe does. Infringing too close for comfort on Russia's territory, and effectively thumbing their nose at Russia in a manner the country finds madly intolerable. The installation is ostensibly meant as a protection against attack from hostile Iran, but not as Russia sees it.

The Czech Republic has given its assent for a radar installation there. Now the government of Poland, white with outrage over Georgia, is adamant it has considered the affair long enough and is now ready to commit, to immediately sign the deal to install 10 interceptor missiles in northern Poland. For, said the Polish defence minister, "We feel at the moment a greater concern for our safety".

Astonishingly, and boding ill for a future reconciliation with Russia on friendly terms, restoring the relationship to its post-U.S.S.R. break-up warmth, Washington has accepted Warsaw's security demands in return for hosting the interceptor missiles silo at their Brdy army base. Patriot missile batteries installed on Polish soil is the price for assent. To be manned by 100 American soldiers.

And that's not all; a pact will be signed for mutual defence; if one country is attacked the other will come to their defence. If that isn't drawing an indelible line in the sand across which Russia may not tread, what then? Well, Russia was quick to respond with a military spokesman warning Poland it will pay dearly for its craven sell-out to the U.S.

Warning darkly that it has exposed itself to the potential of invasion by so doing. And that nuclear weaponry may just be used in a process of due punishment. This is, of course, overheated rhetoric in the passion of the moment, in response to what is seen as an intolerable insult. But the threat inherent in the response cannot be overlooked.

Tread with caution: here lie cluster bombs of explosive consequences.

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