Internal Orange Rift

Ukraine is now divided into two camps; wisely pro-Russian and incautiously otherwise. Actually, it's a word to the wise, that would have the country and its administrators desist in provoking their neighbour. The thing of it is, nationalistic pride is such that once branded, becomes more than sufficient. The experience was not a roaring success for the people of Ukraine.

With the singular exception of that 17% of Ukrainians whose ancestry is Russian. And when push comes to shove, they'll be there, clamouring for the necessity to bolster Russian claims in the country. Moscow's own special constituency. Reflective of a like situation in all former Soviet satellite countries. Those for whose safety and security Moscow claims the right to invade other countries.

President Victor Yuschchenko, whose face bears the results of personal experience of disciplinary measures Moscow can invoke against her detractors, remains staunchly determined to become a member of NATO. He sees Ukraine's future within the Western sphere of influence. Irritating Moscow no end.

He will have an opportunity, in two years' time, to contest an old adversary for control of his country's destiny. None other than Yulia Tymoshenko, the current prime minister. Ukraine's very own beautiful and braided Iron Maiden. Their initial exultant triumph in leading Ukraine toward its current trajectory didn't last very long.

After the briefest of honeymoons, he fired her, then accepted her back, now is burdened with her rejection of his policies. She is adamantly opposed to his rash restoration of military hardware displays in celebration of independence day. The parades of military might that would shrink in power and significance allayed against those of Russia.

Despite the most recent demonstration of Russia's response to the fiery kindling of territorial sovereignty from Georgia, Victor Yushchenko moves relentlessly forward, snubbing Russia with his demand that its fleet prepare to vacate Sevastopol. Ukraine, he insists, has no intention whatever of renewing Moscow's lease in 2017.

Ukraine, like Poland and other Eastern European countries once in thrall to Soviet Russia, is outraged at the violent intrusion into Georgia, its horrendous pounding by its neighbour. Incensed that the missile corvette that sank a Georgian patrol boat has returned to the Black Sea port.

Ukrainian anti-Russian protesters faced off against pro-Russian protesters. The presidential decree that imposed restrictions on Russian naval craft moving within Ukrainian waters, requiring permission and a Ukraine escort, has been flicked aside by Russia. There is a standing treaty, and Russia may move there with impunity.

A spokesman for the prime minister has expressed her unease with the military pride and demonstrations blanketing Kiev. "The prime minister thinks the military parade is inappropriate because of the cost at a time when Ukraine has to cope with severe flooding but also because this flexing of muscles is a provocation."

The prime minister has taken steps to distance herself from the potential for NATO membership. Her spokesman pointed out that whatever military upgrading Ukraine has resorted to, is certain to prove inadequate in protecting the country; the best assurance for self-preservation lies in preserving peace with Russia.

The future resembles the past. It's all in the geography.